Our 2026 Oscar Predictions

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Ahead of the 98th Academy Awards taking place on 15 March 2026, we wait with bated breath for the nominations announcement for next year’s biggest movie event on 22 January. Here at Modded, we’re convinced that each of our predictions will appear among these and be involved in the glitz and glamor of the Oscars ceremony in mid-March.

Let’s face it, all of the movies that feature at the Oscars are already winners at the box office — no category for the worst horror movies exists! The following are our Oscar predictions for the winners in the major categories of these prestigious awards, along with the other potential nominees that’ll compete for the Oscars. 

1. Best Picture

Ultimately, this Oscar is the one every stakeholder wants to bring home. The modern era dictates that there’ll only be one winner in this prime category, although some others have seen ties between nominees. 

Our potential nominees are: 

• “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
• “Hamnet” (Focus)
• “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
• “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
• “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)

And our predicted winner is:

“One Battle After Another”

Starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio del Toro, Sean Penn, Regina Hall and Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” is an epic, politically driven thriller directed by Paul Thomas Anderson. We named “One Battle After Another” as our best movie of 2025 and aren’t alone in predicting its success at next year’s Oscar ceremony — movie pundits across the globe already tout it as the firm favorite.

2. Best Director

Come March, Sean Baker will relinquish his title as the current Oscar winner for Best Director after winning with “Anora” in 2025. Who will win the Oscar in 2026? 

Our potential nominees are:

• Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
• Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident”
• Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
• Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
• Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”

And our predicted winner is:

Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”

Before “One Battle After Another,” Anderson’s most acclaimed directing feat came with 2007’s “There Will Be Blood,” for which he received one of his 11 Oscar nominations. 2026 is bound to see his 12th, where, if our predictions are correct, he’ll come up against one previous winner in the category. In 2021, Chloé Zhao became the first Asian woman to win the Best Director Oscar for “Nomadland.”

3. Best Actress

Of our five potential nominees in the Best Actress category, one was among the finalists in 2025, another has a previous win and the other three are potentially debut nominees if our predictions are correct. So you could say there’s an 80% chance of a first-time Best Actress winner at the 98th Oscars.

Our potential nominees are: 

• Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another”
• Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
• Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
• Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
• Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”

And our predicted winner is:

Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”

Like DiCaprio in the Best Actor category, some critics believe that Buckley can start walking to the stage to collect her Oscar as soon as Adrien Brody starts reading the list of nominees. Her portrayal of William Shakespeare’s wife, Agnes — better known as Anne Hathaway — was really that good. We won’t argue with the critics on this occasion either.

4. Best Actor

Always a category to throw up a surprise now and then — think Anthony Hopkins for “The Father” in 2021 or Adrien Brody for “The Pianist” in 2003. Although there’s no disputing the talent of these male stars, they weren’t the favorites on the night. Will something similar happen in 2026? These are our expected nominees and the winning actor.

Our potential nominees are:

• Joel Edgerton, “Train Dreams”
• Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
• Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
• Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
• Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”

And our predicted winner is: 

Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”

No surprises here. DiCaprio won his coveted first Best Actor Oscar for “The Revenant” in 2015, following four previous unsuccessful nominations in the category. This time, he is the red-hot favorite to win for his role as the washed-up, substance-abusing Bob, a single father searching for his missing daughter. Some say it’s the actor’s best performance to date. Surely, Leo will add a second Best Actor statuette to his mantlepiece in March.

5. Best Supporting Actress

The Best Supporting Actress category could potentially be one of the most hotly contested Oscars at the 2026 event, with several fine actresses standing an even chance of taking the statuette home. Despite some of our prior predictions, we love an underdog here, especially one from beyond the traditional Hollywood circle, so bear that in mind when assessing our predicted winner.

Our potential nominees are:

• Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
• Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good”
• Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
• Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”

And our predicted winner is:

Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good”

Superstar singer Grande was a first-time Oscar nominee last time out for her supporting role in the original “Wicked” movie. She missed out on that occasion to Zoe Saldaña, who won for her portrayal of Rita Mora Castro in the musical crime comedy, “Emilia Pérez.” Still, we believe she’ll go one better this time in the reprisal of her part as Glinda, the good witch in “Wicked: For Good.”

6. Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin will be at the 2026 Oscar ceremony, but not as a repeat winner in this category. This time, he’ll hand the Best Supporting Actress her statuette. However, we’re not short of some well-established and renowned names among our potential nominees, with two even involved in the same movie. Can you guess which movie?

Our potential nominees are:

• Adam Sandler, “Jay Kelly”
• Benicio del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
• Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
• Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
• Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”

And our predicted winner is:

Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”

Again, we’re bucking the trend and predicting a winner that’s not a firm favorite. The Norwegian film “Sentimental Value” is a perfect vessel for the 74-year-old Swedish veteran, who excels as Gustav Borg, a charismatic but self-absorbed film director trying hard to mend ties with estranged daughters. While one of the “One Battle After Another” actors is favored to win the Oscar, we believe the experienced Swede has an excellent chance of snatching it from them.

Our 2026 Oscar Predictions in Other Popular Categories

We’ll leave you a little taster of our thoughts for the 2026 winners in some of the other popular categories:

• Best Original Screenplay: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
• Best Adapted Screenplay: Will Tracy, “Bugonia”
• Best Original Score: Ludwig Göransson, “Sinners”
• Best Original Song: “Golden” by EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick, “K-Pop Demon Hunters”
• Best Casting: Francine Maisler, “Sinners”
• Best Animated Feature: “Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
• Best International Feature Film: “Sentimental Value” (Norway)
• Best Documentary Feature Film: “2000 Meters to Andriivka”
• Best Visual Effects: “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) 

Let’s leave it there. Our winning predictions in 15 Oscar categories won’t leave the Academy debating their choices, but perhaps they’ve given you a little food for thought before the ceremony. Who knows, we might even see a video game based on one or two of these titles hit the shelves in a year or two?

Our Final Thoughts on the 2026 Oscar Race

With only a short time remaining before the ceremony near the end of 2026’s first quarter, anticipation is mounting. Which movies will take home the most statuettes? How many first-time winners will we see? Will there be any major surprises on the night?

While we believe our Modded predictions are sound, the glitzy occasion always turns up a surprise or two, so we’ll be there watching to see how close we are in predicting what, for many actors and actresses, could be their only time to shine in the Academy Awards spotlight. Will you be joining us?